Looking at the headlines for the last four months about housing is really depressing. However I have noticed that the bodies of the articles and the headline are often at odds. This made me wonder how many people make their housing decisions based on the headlines instead of the articles. We are a nation addicted to the quick. A vast number of us get our news from headlines on our home page or CNN. Articles take time to read; we need the condensed version.
One headline in red bold point type is: 31.7% Biggest Drop in CA home Sales 24 years. What you don't find until the second paragraph is that the drop is from September of 2005. Not mentioned is that home sales in 2005 were the highest ever recorded. Also down in the body is that Unsold inventory is holding steady and is close to the long- term historic average of a normal market. So why isn't the headline Market Reaching Historic Average?
Another article headline says: Home Price Fall Sharpest in 35 Years! What you don't get until the third paragraph is that this number ( 9.7%) is for Nationwide sales of new construction. Half way through the article you find that overall prices are down by only 2.5% and sales activity is up for the last two months. You won't see a headline that says Prices Only Drop 2.7% Sales on Rise.
If I were a Buyer or Seller reading all the headlines I'd be leery of this market. Buyers are worried that if they buy the price will drop and they will look silly for buying in a down market. Sellers are concerned that if they sell now prices will go back up and they will look foolish for not waiting until the market changed. People are truly afraid to make a decision about housing. People would rather make a mistake about a spouse then a house!
The Real Estate market has been slow for almost a year. The Bubble bloggers are praying prices drop to 1995 levels but that's not likely to happen. Sellers are waiting for prices to increase 50% and that's not going to happen either. Here is what has happened. Prices have declined and inventory is up with many housing choices. Sellers will negotiate price and terms. Interest rates are very low. 30 year fixed rates for loans less then $417,000 are 5.78% and jumbo fixed rates are 6.1%. This is an amazing market with great financing and lots of choices but people are not buying. So why are people waiting? I think people are afraid. It seems as if the entire country is just waiting for a headline that tells them the slump is over and it?s OK to return to the housing market. No one wants to be wrong, however trying to time a housing market is almost impossible and usually depends on luck more then skill. Often by the time the general public realizes a market has changed it is too late to get in at the right time. So if you are waiting for the headlines to tell you it?s time to buy you might be too late to get that good deal you have been waiting for so patiently.
Kaye Thomas is a UCLA graduate and has been selling real estate in Manhattan Beach Ca since 1979. Kaye works with buyers and sellers and specializes in residential and small residential income property in the South Bay Beach Cities of Los Angeles county. For more information on buying or selling visit Kaye at Kaye Thomas 4 Homes or Move2ManhattanBeach
or read her BLOG at Manhattan Beach and South Bay Real Estate Information You can e-mail Kaye with questions at: Kaye Thomas
